The M&E Dispatch // 111

Hello Everyone,

It’s not hyperbole to frame this growing escalation as anything short of the start of a war, what level of engagement is yet to be seen.

For those who haven’t tuned in, the situation between the United States and Venezuela has crossed every diplomatic line and is quickly spilling into open conflict.

US Navy warships, fighter jets, and powerful rhetoric have converged on the Caribbean, while Venezuela’s government answers with mass mobilization, emergency powers, and a military footing not seen in decades.

For those of us with interests, operations, or counterparties in Venezuela, the risk profile has changed, immediately and materially. Direct exposure to Venezuelan assets, contracts, and ongoing business just shifted from “emerging market headache” to “potential live-fire theatre.” This isn’t hypothetical. The intersection of geopolitics and resource portfolios just moved out of the footnotes and into the foreground.

Here’s what I’m watching:

• Late September 2025: The US military conducted strikes against Venezuelan vessels in the Caribbean, with at least 17 fatalities reported. This marks the most direct armed engagement in the region since the 1989 invasion of Panama (Reuters, Sept 2, BBC, Sept 3).
• October 1, 2025: President Trump formally notified Congress that the US is in a “non-international armed conflict,” triggering broad wartime authorities and deploying the largest military presence off Venezuela’s coast in living memory (CBS News, Oct 2, TIME, Oct 3).
• October 2, 2025: Caracas responded by declaring a state of emergency, expanding military command, and activating civilian militias—a full mobilization that puts up to four million personnel, directly or indirectly, on standby (Al Jazeera, Oct 2, CNN, Oct 2).
• Canadian exposure: Multiple Canadian energy and mining firms—ranging from oil and gas ventures to those with long-standing arbitration claims—have active projects, production contracts, or legal interests in Venezuela. All of these positions now exist under a radically different regime, with obvious implications for asset security, operational continuity, payments, and enforceability (EnergyNow, Jan. 2024, Yahoo Finance, Apr 2024).

Questions at the top of my list right now:

• If this military situation escalates, what’s the contingency for Canadian-owned assets and teams already in-country?
• Will outstanding arbitration claims, some worth over a billion dollars, remain enforceable if legal and institutional frameworks in Venezuela shift, or if emergency powers are invoked?
• How will the market respond if Venezuelan crude exports come offline and heavy Canadian grades get a short-term boost in US Gulf Coast refineries? And how durable is that window?
• For anyone holding new or ongoing contracts, what’s the posture around payment risk, sudden regulatory changes, or even outright nationalization?
• How exposed are Canada’s pension funds, institutional portfolios, and retail investors to Venezuelan projects or claims already marked in the books? Are those numbers “real” in a live conflict?
• Is there a role for Ottawa to play diplomatically, especially if the threat matrix changes, or do Canadian companies and investors have to rely on contractual best-efforts alone?
• Given historical expropriation, could we see a repeat, this time under the guise of emergency mobilization?

For many in the industry, these aren’t theoretical questions, they’re action items. Each update from Washington or Caracas has the potential to recalibrate everything from risk models to cash flow, and this morning’s board call could be outdated by lunchtime.

If you’re watching this as closely as I am, don’t expect clarity, expect volatility. More to follow as this situation develops.

// The Dirt

🔥 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

FPX Nickel Signs Indigenous Exploration Agreement
FPX Nickel Corp. signed an Exploration Agreement with the Takla Nation for the Klow property, BC, outlining a collaborative, responsible framework for nickel exploration.
URL: https://fpxnickel.com/news/fpx-nickel-signs-exploration-agreement-with-takla-nation-for-klow-property

Fathom Nickel Expands Saskatchewan Nickel Footprint
Fathom Nickel has mobilized new prospecting at Gochager Lake (SK), with recent wildfire exposure vastly increasing prospective outcrop and enabling extension of nickel-copper-cobalt mineralization 1.4 km along strike.
URL: https://fathomnickel.com/fathom-announces-additional-prospecting-program-within-expanded-footprint-at-the-gochager-lake-project

Star Copper — Promising British Columbia Discovery
Phase 1 drilling returned:

• 226.5m @ 0.70% CuEq
• 90m @ 1.13% CuEq
  Establishing large, near-surface copper zones and excellent project potential for BC’s electrification supply chain.
  URL: https://starcopper.com/star-copper-reports-overlimit-samples-increases-grade-profile-from-surface

🥇 Gold, Copper & Major Project Results

Red Pine Exploration — Ontario Gold Intersect
Red Pine intersected 7.76 g/t Au over 15.49m at Wawa Gold Project, ON, supporting an updated independent resource estimate and marking a near-surface, high-grade win in Ontario’s gold heartland.
URL: https://redpineexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Red-Pine-Drilling-Results-September-2025-Final.pdf

Midland & SOQUEM — New Cu-Au-REE Discovery, Quebec
A newly discovered Labrador Trough zone returned 31.6% Cu, 6.9 g/t Au, 0.16% REE, highlighting major Quebec-based critical mineral upside through innovative partnerships.
URL: https://midlandexploration.com/2025/09/30/midland-et-soquem-annoncent-la-decouverte-dune-nouvelle-zone-de-cuivre-or-et-etr-dans-la-fosse-du-labrador/

TNR Gold — ESG-Driven Investment in Los Azules
TNR Gold’s royalty in Los Azules (Argentina) gained a major boost as the project aligned with World Bank Group’s IFC ESG standards, paving the way for significant project financing and setting a global standard.
URL: https://tnrgoldcorp.com/2025-news/tnr-gold-nsr-royalty-update-ifc-supports-mcewen-copper-through-key-collaboration-towards-financing-for-los-azules/

📈 Financings & Market Moves

Kirkland Lake Discoveries — Upsized Placement ($14M)
Kirkland Lake Discoveries boosts gross proceeds with an upsized placement to fuel growth on Ontario gold assets.
URL: https://www.kirklandlakediscoveries.com/post/kirkland-lake-discoveries-corp-announces-upsizing-of-private-placement-to-10m

Apollo Silver — $20.9 Million Private Placement
Apollo Silver announced a major non-brokered offering, reflecting keen market interest in silver and critical minerals.
URL: https://apollosilver.com/apollo-silver-announces-20-88-million-private-placement-offering

Star Copper — Additional Assays Pending
Ongoing QA/QC and future assays may unlock further upside as Star Copper builds out its BC copper asset.
URL: https://starcopper.com/star-copper-reports-overlimit-samples-increases-grade-profile-from-surface

🌱 ESG, Sustainability, and Policy

FPX Nickel’s Industry-Leading Indigenous Collaboration
The Takla Nation agreement is a Canadian benchmark for Indigenous engagement at the exploration stage.
URL: https://fpxnickel.com/news/fpx-nickel-signs-exploration-agreement-with-takla-nation-for-klow-property

IFC-Linked ESG for Los Azules
Los Azules, with IFC/World Bank ESG alignment, becomes an international model for responsible, finance-ready mine development.
URL: https://tnrgoldcorp.com/2025-news/tnr-gold-nsr-royalty-update-ifc-supports-mcewen-copper-through-key-collaboration-towards-financing-for-los-azules/

🚀 Noteworthy Developments

Gold X2 Acquires Kesselrun Resources (Ontario)
Gold X2 Mining consolidates Ontario’s Shebandowan Belt with a definitive agreement to acquire Kesselrun Resources Ltd., expanding near-mine and regional gold potential.
URL: https://goldx2.com/gold-x2-signs-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-kesselrun-resources-ltd

American Pacific Mining — Madison Copper-Gold Drilling (Montana)
Receives permit approval and begins a high-priority drilling campaign at Madison, prepping to test new porphyry and skarn targets.
URL: https://americanpacificmining.com/news-releases-2025/american-pacific-mining-receives-drill-permit-approval-for-the-madison-copper-gold-project

Cassiar Gold — Taurus Drilling Expansion (BC)
Ongoing resource drilling further expands near-surface mineralization and supports continued gold resource growth in northern BC.
URL: https://www.cassiargold.com/news/

// The Hustle

The boys are off to New York this morning for a weekend showcase, my son will be playing game 1 here in a little over an hour.

On that note, have you had to get USD out of your Canadian bank account lately? No? Well, don’t look at the exchange rate, trust me it’s better that way.

Have a good weekend all,
-Lee