How It Works
The Rules of
the Game
We post prediction questions about commodity prices, policy moves, and industry outcomes. You call your shot before the deadline. When the outcome is known, your prediction gets graded.
How It Works
New questions are posted on a rolling basis. Some close in hours, others stay open for weeks or months.
Every question shows its deadline. Once you lock in your prediction, it's sealed — no edits.
When the outcome is known, your prediction is graded and points are awarded based on accuracy and confidence.
Question Types
Yes / No
Binary call. Will it happen or won't it? Right gets full points, wrong gets zero.
Numeric
Predict a specific number — a closing price, an exchange rate, a production figure. The closer you are, the more you earn. Partial credit awarded.
Multiple Choice
Pick the right answer from 3–4 options. Right gets full points, wrong gets zero.
Ranking
Put items in the correct order. Each correct position earns partial credit. Nail the full order for maximum points.
Categories
Every question belongs to one of four categories. You can filter questions and track your performance by category:
- 🛢️ Commodity — Oil prices, gas benchmarks, metals, production volumes
- 🏛️ Policy — Regulations, carbon pricing, government decisions
- 🏗️ Project — Approvals, milestones, construction, commissioning
- 📊 Macro — Exchange rates, interest rates, economic indicators
Scoring
Every question is worth a base of 10 points.
Your final score depends on accuracy and confidence:
| Result | 🤷 Meh | 👍 Solid | 🔥 All In |
|---|---|---|---|
| Correct | +10 | +15 | +20 |
| Wrong | 0 | 0 | -10 |
🤷 Meh — Safe play. Base points if right, nothing lost if wrong.
👍 Solid — 1.5x multiplier on correct calls. Still no penalty for misses.
🔥 All In — Double points if you're right. But if you're wrong, you lose points. High risk, high reward.
Numeric Scoring Bands
For numeric questions, you don't have to be exact. Points are awarded by how close you get:
| Accuracy | Base Points |
|---|---|
| Within 1% of actual | 10 |
| Within 3% of actual | 7 |
| Within 5% of actual | 3 |
| More than 5% off | 0 |
Confidence multipliers apply on top of these base points.
Streaks
Get 3 correct predictions in a row within the same category and you earn a +5 bonus.
The bonus repeats every 3 — so 6 in a row earns it twice. A wrong answer resets your streak in that category.
Your best-ever streak is displayed on your profile.
Leaderboard
The leaderboard ranks all players by total points, with accuracy as a tiebreaker.
Monthly scores reset on the 1st. The top player each month earns the Shot Caller of the Month badge.
You can filter the leaderboard by All Time, This Month, or by category (Commodity, Policy, Project, Macro).