THE DISPATCH

The Pan to the Trommel

The Layoff Wave Meets the AI Wave

Once upon a time, prospectors stood knee‑deep in icy creeks, swirling pans in search of colour. Then came the rocker box, the sluice, the trommel, the dragline dredge, each one a machine that moved more earth and left fewer hands in the water. Every wave of progress pulled some workers out and pulled others forward.

This time, the shift is happening at code speed.

In the past few weeks, headlines have been relentless. Amazon, Salesforce, Accenture, law firms, logistics firms, layoffs hitting every corner of the economy. Research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted over 54,000 layoffs in 2025 where companies explicitly blamed AI, up from a few thousand two years earlier. Goldman Sachs now estimates AI is responsible for 5,000–10,000 net job losses per month in exposed industries.

At Davos, the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva called it a “tsunami.” On LinkedIn, it looks like a tide of green “Open to Work” banners.

The Horse to the Car, at Software Speed

In earlier cycles, robots on assembly lines, offshore call centers, laid‑off workers often found similar jobs a few postcodes away. The skills still mattered; the industry still wanted you.

This time, companies are cutting in expectation of AI, not because it’s outperforming humans yet. Harvard Business Review calls these “pre‑emptive” cuts. Forrester sees “AI‑washing”, financial housekeeping dressed up as futurism. Gartner predicts half of the firms making AI‑justified layoffs will rehire similar roles by 2027.

It’s not just a horse‑to‑car moment. It’s a horse‑to‑car transformation happening at fiber‑optic velocity, fast enough that people are rewriting their CVs while the new road is still being paved.

Mining and Energy industries seem oddly insulated

While white‑collar sectors are awash with displaced talent, mining and energy are short on people.

AI is showing up in pits, plants, and pipelines fast. Spending on AI in mining is set to climb from $2.7 billion in 2024 to over $13 billion by 2029, and broader digital integration could top $67 billion by 2032. In oil and gas, BCG sees 30–70% EBIT gains for those going all‑in on AI.

But no one’s cutting jobs. They can’t fill them.

Canada’s mining sector alone is projected to need 190,000+ workers by 2034, with a possible shortfall of 40,000 even under baseline conditions. The unemployed‑to‑vacancy ratio has dipped below 1.0. In the U.S., more than half of mining workers could retire by 2029. Cameco and others are already missing output targets simply because there aren’t enough qualified people.

Meanwhile, the AI boom itself is fuelling new demand for critical minerals and stable baseload power, copper, lithium, uranium, and the electrons to feed global data centers.

Jobs That Change, Not Vanish

Inside mines and energy assets, the biggest changes are coming to routine and reporting tasks, monitoring, compliance, safety logs, logistics. One recent study suggests 40% of mining engineering functions could be transformed by 2030, not eliminated but rewritten around data, remote operations, and automation oversight.

Hybrid talent, people who understand both operations and analytics, is emerging as the new backbone. New positions are springing up in autonomous fleet control, drone monitoring, data analysis, cybersecurity for OT, and digital HR. Junior miners and mid‑tiers, less burdened by legacy systems, are moving fastest.

The Opportunity Hiding in the Chaos

By the second half of 2026, trends will start to formalize:

• Some companies will rehire some AI‑cut roles under new job designs.

• Mining’s labour crunch will show up in production reports, not headlines.

• Contract work around data, HR, ESG, and analytics will expand to fill the gaps.

That’s where the two currents meet: thousands of newly available data and systems professionals from tech and consulting, and a resource sector in urgent need of digital capacity.

If you’re running a mining or energy operation, now is the time to match those stranded skills to real work, from modernizing ESG reporting to scoping realistic AI pilots before budgets vanish.

This isn’t doom. It’s the kind of messy middle that has always built new industries, from the prospector’s pan to the trommel, from the horse to the car. The people and companies that adapt fastest will not just survive this wave, they’ll own the shoreline when it recedes.

// THE DIRT

A Closing Thought

NOTES FROM THE NORTH

So what about me, where does AI leave me? Well dear reader, I’m glad you asked. I’m still ok.

In a way I’ve been unemployable for years, can’t be laid off that way…

For more than 2 decades I’ve been a self employed consultant spending most of my days trying to stay a step or two ahead of the rest.

Remember the old “I’m not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night” commercials from a while ago?

ChatGPT/Claude is the new Holiday Inn Express.

It gives those who embrace it a few extra steps on the rest of the lot, now you can spot the trends and figure out how to do it before someone else.

That’s all this game has ever been, who’s first.

First to find gold, first to sell shovels, first to invest…

I'm leaning in hard, when you look at the billions being poured into AI it’s hard not to see where this trend is going.

I know there's no gas stations near my house yet, and I still have more feed than I know what to do with, but it’s time to sell the horse.

… and on that note, I’d love if you took a look at the updates to the sites that I’ve been working on. I’m pretty proud of it.

And for those who’ve read this far down, don’t forget about the rad deal I have on right now!
_{(Thank you to the 5 who jumped on this so far! 15 spots left as of writing this)}

-Lee

Horse for sale, bites often, temperamental, no heat, no A/C - $500 OBO