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The M&E DISPATCH // 173

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The M&E DISPATCH // 173

The Friday Dispatch

Mining & Energy Friday Dispatch | Vol. 9 | May 8th, 2026

Three US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday and came under attack from Iranian drones, missiles, and small boats. The US hit back — striking Iranian ports at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Trump says the ceasefire is "still in effect." Iran says the US violated it. The UAE woke up to drone and missile strikes this morning. Iran has now created a formal "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to collect tolls and vet vessels trying to pass through Hormuz, which a shipping intelligence firm described flatly as "right now the strait is closed."

Gold is at $4,732. Silver is at $81. Copper is up 36% year-over-year. Uranium is at $86.25/lb. Suncor just reported $2.1 billion in Q1 profit and record production. Canada just funded North America's first cobalt sulfate refinery. And Alberta's West Coast pipeline application is due at the Major Projects Office by July 1.

It's a lot. Let's get into it.

🛠️ Featured Profiles

🟡 Precious Metals & Silver

  • Gold at $4,732 and climbing as US-Iran exchange fire — Yahoo Finance / Fortune
    Gold opened at $4,682.50 Friday morning and climbed to $4,732.60 by 6:45 a.m. ET as news broke of the overnight Hormuz clash. The all-time high of $5,589 from January is back in view. Experts are now projecting a move to $4,800–$4,850 in the near term, with safe-haven demand structurally supported as long as the conflict remains unresolved.

  • Silver at $81 — up 147% since last year — Silver Institute / GoldSilver.com
    Silver surged 147% in 2025 — one of its strongest years on record — and hit a nominal all-time high of $121.64 in January 2026. It has since pulled back but is consolidating above $80, with J.P. Morgan forecasting an average of $81/oz for the full year. Analysts are watching the $85 level as the next key threshold. Industrial demand, geopolitical safe-haven buying, and defence sector procurement are all pointing the same direction.

  • Copper up 36% year-over-year — now at $6.26/lb — Trading Economics / MarketWatch
    Copper rose to $6.26/lb on May 8, up 2.18% on the day and 35.91% above where it was a year ago. The structural bid — electrification, defence spending, data centre buildout — is not going away. At these prices, previously marginal Canadian copper projects are looking very different on a spreadsheet.

  • Uranium at $86.25/lb — up 23% year-over-year — ANS / Trading Economics / Cameco
    Uranium spot hit $86.35/lb at end of April per Cameco data, and has held steady into May. Rising reactor demand and tightening supply are dual structural tailwinds. Canada's Cameco is central to that story, and the long-term institutional bid for uranium equities is growing.

⚡ Energy & Oil Markets

🇨🇦 Canada: Building While the World Burns

🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

  • China's rare earth export control suspension expires November 10 — new licensing rules already tightening supply — Mining Technology
    Six months until the hard deadline. Analysis notes "limited progress in reducing global dependence" on Chinese supply. New 2026 licensing rules have already added controls for key rare earth compounds. Extraterritorial enforcement provisions — allowing China to regulate overseas use of controlled materials — activate at the same November deadline. The window to build alternative supply chains is open. It will not stay open indefinitely.

  • 13 major projects referred to Canada's Major Projects Office — 5 of them mining — Torys Q2 2026
    The federal government has referred 13 projects to the MPO for expedited approval — five are mining projects. The Building Canada Act's MPO framework is becoming the de facto fast lane for nationally significant resource development. Twenty-one mines and minerals projects are currently in progress for federally designated Impact Assessment status. The permitting machinery is moving.

  • Silver in its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit — Silver Institute
    Global silver investment is projected to remain strong in 2026, underpinned by a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit. Industrial demand from solar, EVs, and defence electronics continues to grow. Silver is currently consolidating around $81 — experts project a move above $85 before year end, with a path to $100 by 2030 cited by multiple forecasters.

  • China tightens rare earth grip with strict new enforcement rules — Mining.com
    China accounts for more than two-thirds of global rare earth mine production and near-monopoly refining capacity. New 2026 enforcement rules formalize extraterritorial reach. The Andersen Institute analysis describes these measures as elevating rare earths into "China's primary coercive instrument." Canada's window to build an alternative supply chain is open. It is not permanent.

💥 Conflict Watch

  • Day 69 of the Iran war: US and Iran exchange fire in Hormuz — NY Times
    The conflict that began February 28 with Operation Epic Fury reached a new flashpoint Thursday. Three US carrier strike groups are now operating simultaneously in the Middle East — the first such deployment in decades. Trump has warned Iran to sign a deal "fast," threatening it would "end up as one big glow" if full hostilities resume. Both sides claim the truce is technically in effect. Neither is behaving like it is.

  • US and Iran still in contact over peace proposal — Tehran's response expected "within hours" — Al Jazeera
    Despite the overnight exchange of fire, US officials are expecting Tehran's response to the latest peace proposal within hours. The proposal reportedly includes a framework for phased sanctions relief, nuclear verification, and a permanent Hormuz reopening mechanism. Multiple mediators — including Oman and Qatar — remain active. The gap on nuclear enrichment remains wide.

  • Chinese tanker attacked near Hormuz — conflict beginning to pull in non-belligerents — NPR
    A Chinese-crewed oil tanker was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz Friday — the first such strike on a non-US, non-Iranian vessel since the conflict began. China has significant economic interests in Iranian oil and Hormuz passage. Its reaction — or non-reaction — will signal a great deal about where this conflict goes next.

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade

  • Carney: "Canada will not make any more concessions" ahead of CUSMA talks — CTV News
    Carney drew a firm line this week: Canada will seek concessions from the US but will not make any further concessions to get Washington to the table. The Americans are reportedly demanding an "entry fee" of policy concessions before formal negotiations begin. Canada's chief trade negotiator noted the review will likely extend well past the July 1 deadline. Carney is playing it from a position of demonstrated strength.

  • Carney coordinates with Mexico's Sheinbaum on joint CUSMA approach — CBC
    Carney and Mexican President Sheinbaum spoke last week to align strategy heading into the CUSMA review. A Mexican trade delegation is conducting a three-city tour of Canada this week. Both nations are approaching the review as a coordinated bloc, aware the US may seek to negotiate bilaterally to split them. The joint posture strengthens both countries at the table.

  • China's rare earth export controls: a coercive instrument with a November deadline — Andersen Institute
    China's new enforcement framework formalizes extraterritorial reach over rare earth supply chains that include Chinese-sourced materials — wherever they are in the world. Beijing can now regulate the overseas use of materials and technologies containing Chinese rare earths. Canada's window to build alternative supply chains is open. It is not permanent.

// NOTES FROM THE NORTH

Day 69 of the Iran war. Three US destroyers running the Strait under fire. A Chinese tanker hit for the first time. Iran building a toll booth at the throat of the global oil supply.

Canada, well, w’re reporting record production numbers. Funding the first cobalt refinery on the continent. Queuing up a new pipeline application. Telling the US it won't pay an entry fee to sit at its own negotiating table.

There's a version of this story where Canada spent this crisis watching from the sidelines, dependent, reactive, and without leverage. That's not the version that's playing out.

The numbers this week tell a different story. $2.1 billion profit at Suncor. $2.4 billion at CNQ. A cobalt refinery in Northern Ontario that will supply a million EV batteries a year. A pipeline application to the Pacific due in seven weeks.

The world is paying $95 to $126 for every barrel of oil we produce. It's paying a 36% premium for our copper versus a year ago. It's scrambling for the cobalt, lithium, graphite, and rare earths we're sitting on.

We don't get to choose the circumstances that create the moment. We only choose what we do when the moment arrives.

Canada is choosing to build.

That's the right call.

-Lee

"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.
- Albert Einstein

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