THE DISPATCH

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The Friday Dispatch

A new format for Fridays.

Friday mornings are often my busiest morning of the week, between last-minute stories and interviews, my work day is packed. Your day is likely the same, but we both need the same thing: a super quick look at how the week is closing out and what Monday will likely bring.

So starting today, Fridays get their own format. Seven categories, thirty-five links, one sentence per story. The deep dives and long-form analysis will still be waiting for you on Tuesdays — but Friday belongs to the dispatch.

🟡 Precious Metals

Gold is rewriting the record books and lighting a fuse under TSX mining stocks — senior producers are flush with cash and actively hunting for their next acquisition.

• Surging gold and silver prices expected to spur more mining takeovers
  Nine Canadian gold deals have exceeded $1 billion in the past year, with total global mining M&A hitting $178 billion in 2025 — a decade high — as producers hunt for reserves to match their swelling cash flows.[1]

• Gold surges past $5,100 to a fresh record
  Spot gold cleared $5,100/oz in January, continuing its extraordinary 64% surge from 2025 — Goldman Sachs has since raised its year-end target to $5,400/oz.[2]

• Record start to 2026 brings prospect of $5,000 gold into view
  Gold ETF inflows hit a record $89 billion in 2025 and China's central bank extended its buying spree to a 14th consecutive month — the structural tailwinds aren't going away.[3]

• This TSX gold producer tipped as top M&A target
  A TD Cowen survey of 58 institutional investors named Iamgold Corp. the top Canadian takeover candidate for 2026, with nearly 80% of respondents also expecting copper M&A to rise.[4]

• Mining stocks dominate TSX Venture 50 list amid rotation into resource sector
  48 of the top 50 TSX Venture performers were mining companies, logging an average share price gain of 443% — the best liquidity metrics in the ranking's 20-year history.[5]

⚡ Energy & Oil Markets

Canada's LNG buildout and Alberta's oil patch are suddenly the most strategically important energy assets in the Western world — the Hormuz crisis is doing what years of lobbying could not.

• Canada as a Solution to Asia's Structural Energy Security Crisis
  With Qatari LNG terminals struck and Gulf shipping paralyzed, Asian buyers are urgently looking to LNG Canada, TMX, and Canada's Pacific LNG projects as the only credible Western alternative.[6]

• LNG Canada ramping up production and exports amid Iran war
  LNG Canada is accelerating cargo deliveries as the Iran conflict drives a demand surge, with all shipments heading to Japan, South Korea, and the broader Pacific market.[7]

• Natural gas and electricity emerge as pivotal forces shaping Canada's energy future
  The Canada Energy Regulator's new Energy Future 2026 report projects Canadian natural gas production reaching 32 Bcf/d by 2050, with LNG exports accounting for up to 25% of total output.[8]

• Alberta pitches new Indigenous-led oil pipeline to northwest B.C. coast
  Alberta is developing a proposal for a new Indigenous co-owned Pacific pipeline capable of carrying ~1 million barrels per day, with a federal submission targeted by July 1, 2026.[9]

• Carney and Trump discussed plan to revive Keystone XL pipeline
  PM Carney raised Keystone XL revival with President Trump as part of a tariff-relief strategy; South Bow's Canadian construction certificate remains valid and the Canada Energy Regulator confirmed the permit conditions are still being met.[10]

🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals

The federal government just dropped $12+ billion on Canada's mineral moment at PDAC — and copper is hitting prices not seen since the commodities supercycle of the early 2000s.

• Canada secures 30 new critical minerals partnerships and unlocks $12.1 billion in mining project capital
  At PDAC 2026, Minister Hodgson announced the Critical Minerals Production Alliance Round 2, mobilizing $18.5 billion in total capital with 12 allied partners to reduce Chinese supply chain dominance.[11][12]

• Canada charts a decisive path for mining at PDAC 2026
  Ottawa launched a new $1.5-billion First and Last Mile Fund plus a $2-billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, alongside a Mine Permit Navigator tool aimed at cutting approval timelines to "One Project, One Review."[12][13]

• Copper surges in 'unsustainable' rally, joining silver and gold in 2026 metals frenzy
  Copper futures surpassed $13,000/tonne (~$6.30/lb), driven by AI data centre demand and electrification; JPMorgan projects data centre copper demand alone could hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026.[14]

• Freeport seeks permit for $7.5B Chile copper mine expansion
  Freeport-McMoRan filed for the largest mining investment in Chile since 1992 — a project that could triple El Abra's output to 300,000+ tonnes/year — though production won't begin until 2033.[15]

• Rare earth supply bottlenecks set to persist in 2026
  China's export licensing regime on seven rare earth elements remains in force, with analysts warning that terbium and dysprosium will face supply bottlenecks through 2027 as Western alternatives are built out.[16]

☢️ Nuclear & Uranium

Uranium is back above $100/lb, Canada's first SMR is under construction, and AI data centres are creating a brand new layer of price-inelastic nuclear demand.

• Uranium market gathers momentum in 2026: Sprott
  Spot uranium prices surged ~25% in January to above $100/lb for the first time in two years, driven by utilities contracting below replacement rate for a 13th consecutive year — building deferred demand into the early 2030s.[17]

• Uranium Prices 2026: Supply Crunch and Rising Demand Fuel a Nuclear Bull Market
  The U.S. DOE committed $2.7 billion to domestic uranium enrichment while the World Nuclear Association projects reactor requirements rising to 150,000 tonnes by 2040 — with AI data centres adding a new layer of demand.[18]

• The SMR pitch: Ontario's small modular reactor plan, explained
  Construction is underway at Darlington for North America's first SMR — four GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 reactors with the first unit targeted for operation in 2030 and a total project budget of C$20.9 billion.[19]

• Canadian SMR project shortlisted for federal fast-track
  Darlington's SMR was referred to Canada's Major Projects Office alongside LNG Canada Phase 2 and two copper projects — a signal that Ottawa is treating nuclear and critical minerals as equally strategic priorities.[20]

• The state of nuclear energy in Canada: A new path emerges
  SMRs are now being evaluated as direct energy supply for remote mine sites and Alberta oilsands operations, potentially transforming nuclear's role from grid power into an industrial backbone for Canada's resource sector.[21]

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade

Canada's tariff fight with Washington, China's rare earth chokehold, and the fracturing of the U.S.-Canada trade relationship are forcing a fundamental rethink of who we sell to — and on what terms.

• In a tariff war, Canada's resources are our strategic advantage
  Mining and energy now represent 41% of Canadian merchandise exports — up from 30.4% in 2015 — making natural resources the central lever in Canada's response to U.S. tariff pressure.[22]

• The U.S. calls for trade bloc to counter China's grip on critical minerals
  The Trump administration's "FORGE" initiative — unveiled at a 54-nation Critical Minerals Ministerial — proposes coordinated price floors and preferential tariff zones to erode China's dominant position in rare earths and battery materials.[23]

• Critical minerals strategy risks shifting reliance from China to U.S.
  A growing chorus of Canadian analysts warns that aligning too tightly with Washington's FORGE framework could trade Chinese dependency for American dependency — with little strategic upside for Canada.[24]

• The Trump paradox: How trade tensions may strengthen Canada's position
  Brookings argues that U.S. tariff pressure is paradoxically accelerating Canada's diversification away from sole reliance on American markets — pushing Ottawa to formalize Asian and European energy and minerals partnerships faster than any policy document could.[25]

• Canada's second chance in the global LNG race
  The Globe argues Canada is better positioned than at any point since the 2015 Paris Agreement to capture a significant share of long-term Asian LNG contracts — but only if permitting reform and Indigenous partnership frameworks move fast enough.[26]

💥 Conflict Watch

The Iran-Hormuz crisis is the biggest energy shock since 2022 — oil is above $100/barrel, shipping insurance has been cancelled for the Strait, and Canada's energy sector is at the centre of the global response.

• Oil stays above $100 a barrel amid Iran's stranglehold on Strait of Hormuz
  Brent crude topped $100/barrel as Iran's Supreme Leader vowed to maintain the Hormuz blockade — a waterway that normally handles 20% of global oil supply, with WTI futures up nearly 40% since hostilities began.[27]

• Threats to the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about global oil prices — NPR
  The prospect of Iran deploying sea mines in the 20-mile-wide Strait has driven maritime insurers to suspend coverage for any transit — making it economically impossible for most tankers to operate regardless of military escorts.[28]

• 'Cascading effects' of Strait of Hormuz blockage getting worse — CBC
  Over 12 days of conflict, the blockade prevented ~250 million barrels of oil from leaving the Gulf — and experts warn shortages of copper, nickel, cobalt, and fertilizer inputs from the region will follow.[29]

• The global price tag of war in the Middle East — World Economic Forum
  Beyond oil, the conflict has cut ~one-third of global helium supply from Qatar's Ras Laffan hub, spiked urea fertilizer prices 30%, and raised production costs for solar panels, batteries, and wind components globally.[30]

• 2026 Update: Russia-Ukraine energy war — a conflict of electricity vs. oil — Forbes
  Russia's oil and gas revenue has collapsed nearly 50% year-over-year as Ukrainian drone strikes have taken ~15% of Russian refining capacity offline — a side conflict with direct implications for global energy supply and European demand for Canadian LNG alternatives.[31]

🤖 Technology & ESG

AI is reshaping how mines operate, a landmark BC court ruling is rewriting how they get permitted, and Indigenous equity ownership is no longer optional — it's becoming a funding prerequisite.

• Five ways AI will transform mining in 2026 — Global Mining Review
  AI is now embedded in over 90% of operating mines in some form, shifting from add-on to central decision-making tool — covering predictive maintenance, resource allocation, and operational forecasting.[32]

• Ten major mining tech trends in 2026 — Mines and Money
  "Open autonomy" and AI-driven edge control of mining equipment are the next leap beyond traditional automation, with a fully automated, battery-electric zero-entry mine in China already setting the benchmark.[33]

• Lessons from Gitxaala v. British Columbia: Realigning Mining Reform with Indigenous Rights — UBC
  The BC Court of Appeal upheld the finding that the province's automated mineral claim staking system breaches the duty to consult — forcing a Mineral Tenure Act reform that will reshape how junior exploration companies stake ground in BC.[34]

• Strengthening Indigenous participation in critical minerals development — Natural Resources Canada
  The federal government is embedding Indigenous leadership requirements into the new $1.5B First and Last Mile Fund — making Indigenous engagement a structural feature of project funding, not an afterthought.[35]

• Mining's top ten ESG trends for 2026 — Canadian Mining Journal
  Climate disclosure, scope 3 emissions, and nature-related financial risks top the list — but the most disruptive ESG trend for Canadian miners in 2026 is the convergence of Indigenous rights and project financing conditions.[36]

The Friday Dispatch is published weekly by Mining & Energy Dispatch. Forward freely. Subscribe at miningandenergy.ca.

// NOTES FROM THE NORTH

Rough start to playoffs for the boys, down 2-0. They’ll be playing their last game today and heading back home. Great season none the less and not the end of the year at all, just league play.

Also, it’s snowing here this morning, I don’t want to talk about it and I sure would appreciate that if you’re somewhere warm, send me a photo so I can live vicariously through you.

Let me know what you think of the new Friday Dispatch Format.

Enjoy the weekend all,

-Lee

The Elevator didn't kill the stair industry. Just sayin’