The M&E DISPATCH // 179
THE DISPATCH
The Friday Dispatch
🟡 Precious Metals
⛽ Energy & Oil Markets
WTI at ~$87–88/barrel — down 16.5% for May, biggest weekly drop since April
JD Vance: deal is "close" but "not there yet" — Trump has not yet signed off
🍁 Canada
🔋 Critical Minerals & Battery Metals
💥 Conflict Watch
🌍 Geopolitics & Trade
// NOTES FROM THE NORTH
Oil is down 20% in a month. That's not a dip. That's the market pricing in the end of a war.
The deal isn't signed yet. Trump hasn't approved it. Iran's IRGC is disputing the terms. There are still mines in the strait. But the direction is clear enough that Brent has already given back most of what it gained when the shooting started. Traders don't wait for signatures.
If the 60-day MOU holds, and that's still a real if, here's what changes for Canadian mining and energy: diesel costs come down, operating margins recover, the inflationary pressure that's been pushing central banks to pause rate cuts starts to ease. Cameco's supply chain, already back online after the Smoothstone bridge got sorted this week, runs uninterrupted through a market that still needs every pound of Canadian uranium it can get.
Here's what doesn't change: the world's appetite for what Canada has in the ground.
The Iran war didn't create that demand, it just made it louder. And it revealed something about sulphur, aluminum, fertilizer inputs, acid supply chains that the industry will be studying for years. Mosaic pulled its entire 2026 phosphate forecast because they couldn't price their inputs. That's not a Hormuz problem. That's a concentration-of-supply problem. And Canada sits on the answer to most of it.
The Cameco update this week was quietly significant. McArthur River and Key Lake are fully back. Production plan unchanged. The 2026 outlook holds. Just weeks after a bridge collapsed and took out their main supply road, the operation is running like it never stopped. That's what well-run looks like.
Now we wait on Trump…
Have a good weekend, I’m off to watch some hockey!
-Lee
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